10 Predictions for 2024

This week, Robin Lake, Executive Director of the Center on Reinventing Public Education, wrote an article for The 74 online titled, “10 Predictions About Learning Recovery, Innovation in Public Education in 2024.” According to the article, “Robin Lake looks into her crystal ball at a possible future of state takeovers, school staffing shifts, personalized AI, and political upheaval everywhere.”

Lake writes,

“The ever-quotable Yogi Berra said it well: ‘It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.’”

“Nevertheless, we at the Center on Reinventing Public Education are umping into the deep end with 10 predictions about the prospects for learning recovery and innovation in public education in 2024. Unlike cable news pundits, who rarely hold themselves accountable for their (often faulty) predictions, we will grade ourselves and report back at the end of the year. Some of these predictions are optimistic, some less so. Whether or not these predictions come to pass will depend on what those in positions of influence do this year to shape the future.”

1. “Districts serious about addressing learning loss and innovation will have to transform their staffing practices. Enrollment declines and the end of federal pandemic funding will lead to teacher layoffs and strikes. Academic and mental health needs will compound. Will districts just spiral downward or will they develop new ways of staffing schools by having teachers specialize, work in teams and use technology and non-traditional educators such as parents and mentors to be more sustainable and efficient? Look to places like Mesa, Arizona, and Ector County, Texas, that are leading the way on innovative staffing models.”

My take on Lake’s question, whether districts will spiral downward or will they develop new ways of staffing schools, is simple: If there is one thing that traditional school districts do not do well is changing staffing patterns while running school. So, I’m not hopeful that the K-12 system will transform their staffing practices anytime soon.

• “Districts that fail to innovate will require state intervention. Some districts are already innovating in anticipation of these challenges. But too many are not, and state will once again be in a position of contemplating takeovers for districts in academic and fiscal crisis. It will fall on the reform community to propose solutions. Time to prepare!”

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again. If there is one institution less prepared to educate kids than a public school district, it would be any one of the 50 states. Witness what is currently happening in Houston, Texas. The state “tookover” the Houston Independent School District and it’s a mess. None of what the state-appointed superintendent has promoted in Houston is new, and most of it isn’t working. States intervening in K-12 districts don’t work.

• “Expect more lawsuits and advocacy on behalf of kids who are not recovering lost learning. New data will continue to spotlight students who have not bounced back from learning losses and the districts that are not doing enough for them. Lawsuits will follow. California’s new $2 billion dollar settlement is a start. Get ready for more suits and advocacy for evidence-based solutions in 2024 as the long-term impacts of the pandemic become more evident.”

This is already happening, as Lake’s reference to California suggests. It’s already a mess, but massive litigation is going to make all of it messier.

• “Leading districts will show how to use generative artificial intelligence to radically personalize learning, especially for kids on the margins. Districts are starting to experiment with adaptive textbooks and assessments. AI-enabled intervention plans for struggling students, customized career counseling and more. But the majority (and the highest-poverty) districts will have deer-in-the-headlights moments because the feds and states will fail to provide large-scale teaching training and policy guidance, as other countries are doing. It will be up to the reform, business and donor communities to keep focus on the issue and ensure the U.S. does not fall behind in preparing teachers and students for this fifth industrial revolution. Education policy leaders will also have to combat the inevitable backlash against AI due to fear, misunderstanding and a lack of preparation among educators and parents.”

Make no mistake about it, AI will revolutionize learning for our nation’s young people. It already has. The question is whether traditional K-12 school districts can play a role in this revolution? I’m skeptical. It seems that AI might take learning outside of school and might replace schools as we know them.

• “Solving for attendance and absenteeism will be paramount. Students can’t learn if they don’t show up. The numbers are sobering: A new analysis shows that nationwide, chronic absenteeism – where students miss more than 10% of the school year – surged form 15% in 2018 to 28% in 2022. While the 2023 data showed improvement, chronic absenteeism rates still remained 75% higher than the pre-pandemic baseline. Schools will need to conduct greater outreach and work more closely with community-based organizations and families, both to compel students to attend school consistently. But school systems and policymakers also need better information about what is at the root of low attendance. There may need to be a reckoning about the overall value proposition of school. This may be the year to finally consider how school in general, but high school in particular, can be more engaging, relevant and responsive to student and family needs?

The question that needs to be asked is this: In 2024, what does it mean for a learning to “show up?” The problem with the traditional K-12 system today is that they want learning to happen on their terms, and not on the individual learner’s terms. The schools and their districts that will survive will be those who negotiate with their young learners about what those young learners want to learn and what they need to learn, how that learning will take place, and where that learning will occur. After negotiations, young learners should be supported when they begin learning how to design their own learning plan. Can most traditional school systems do this work? My guess is some will, some won’t.

We’ll cover #6 through #10 tomorrow. Til then. SVB